Thursday, May 6, 2021

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Cut prediction: Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard

2021 Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard, Round 1

Scoring Conditions:

Overall: +1.11 strokes per round
Morning wave: +1.23
Afternoon wave: +0.98

Current cutline (top 65 and ties):

70 players at +1 or better (T56)

Top 3 projected cutline probabilities:

1. 2 over par: 39.9%
2. 1 over par: 30.8%
3. 3 over par: 17.9%

Top 10 win probabilities:

1. Rory McIlroy (T1, -6, 26.6%)
2. Bryson DeChambeau (3, -5, 18.4%)
3. Corey Conners (T1, -6, 7.8%)
4. Viktor Hovland (T7, -3, 6.9%)
5. Sungjae Im (T7, -3, 3.9%)
6. Matthew Fitzpatrick (T7, -3, 3.8%)
7. Jason Kokrak (T4, -4, 3.6%)
8. Sebastian Munoz (T4, -4, 2.2%)
9. Byeong Hun An (T4, -4, 2.1%)
10. Jason Day (T15, -2, 2.1%)

NOTE: These reports are based off of the live predictive model run by @DataGolf. The model provides live “Make Cut”, “Top 20”, “Top 5”, and “Win” probabilities every 5 minutes from the opening tee shot to the final putt of every PGA TOUR event. Briefly, the model takes account of the current form of each golfer as well as the difficulty of their remaining holes, and probabilities are calculated from 20K simulations. To follow live finish probabilities throughout the remainder of the Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard, or to see how each golfer’s probabilities have evolved from the start of the event to the current time, click here for the model’s home page.

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